Libya: Cyrenaica vs. Tripolitania?

 

John R. Houk

© March 21, 2011

The civil war in Libya looked promising in its beginning to force the dictator Moamar Qaddafi out as leader. Then Qaddafi began his counter-offensive making serious dents of the rebel holdings in the east while cause vicious casualties among rebel soldiers and Libyan civilians. Then a coalition that is initially headed by the U.S. Military instituted a No-Fly zone which in effect has stalled at least momentarily Qaddafi’s counter-offensive.

If President Obama had acted earlier more damage may have hampered Qaddafi that would have indeed forced to him to flee; however President Obama is exactly known for his foreign policy guts that would protect American National Interests and benefit potential future allies from Libya. Nonetheless, when the President gave the go the combined coalition forces of America, France and the UK began an operation of pin-point accuracy rattling Qaddafi’s Air Force and anti-aircraft capabilities. That has to be good for the Libyan rebels to regroup and perhaps receive some military aid that could enhance a rebel counter-offensive.

I have been alerted to a STRATFOR article that offers a glimpse into the inner workings of the Libyan rebel leadership and governing apparatus. In this article I discovered that Libya like many Muslim nations is basically divided by tribal influences. In Libya those tribes seem to be divided into two regions. The western region, of which Qaddafi is from, has been known as Tripolitania and the eastern region of Libya, which most of the rebels are from, has been roughly known as Cyrenaica.

Apart from the STRATFOR emphasis on Tripolitania and Cyrenaica, there is a third region in Libya called the Fezzan. I suspect STRATFOR focuses on Tripolitania and Cyrenaica is because those regions are the most populous. The Fezzan is really a backward area of mostly the Sahara Desert. Really western part of Libya is divided into Tripolitania in the Northwest and the Fezzan in the Southwest with the Eastern half of Libya as the region of Cyrenaica. Also you should know that Cyrenaica was the dominant tribal region after Libyan independence. Moammar Qaddafi became the leader of a group of low level Officers that executed a coup against the Western installed King Idris who was deposed. A good short summary explaining the regions of Tripolitania, the Fezzan and Cyrenaica can be found at Middle East News Wire.

The picture then is somewhat of a traditional looking civil war between two sides: Tripolitania and Cyrenaica. The Cyrenaica-Libyan rebels have denied the civil war is a regional civil war but is a war to rid all Libyans of the despotism of Moammar Qaddafi.

The reality is though that there are undoubtedly some tribal elites of Tripolitania that have had a favored status that probably support their native son loony Moammar Qaddafi. If the rebels launch an effective counter-offensive to retake lost rebel territory and it is successful it will be interesting how many Tripolitania-Libyans will get behind the Cyrenaica-Libyan rebels.

JRH 3/21/11

Saudi Gulf Nations Preparing to Send Militaries to Bahrain

John R. Houk

© March 14, 2011

 

Bahrain is a near microscopic dot on the map that otherwise might be thought of as Saudi territory. Bahrain is a micro-Sheikdom with oil wealth and the port of the U.S. Navy 5^th Fleet.

 

 

PERSIAN GULF NATION MAP

 

Little tiny Bahrain has been besieged by Shi’ites in their tiny island nation who have revolted over the absolute monarchy (officially constitutional but you know…) that controls the government and which is a Sunni royal family. The unrest in Bahrain is not new but the recent intensity is undoubtedly a manifestation of Muslim unrest that began in Tunisia and spread across the Maghreb and the Muslim Middle East to change the old regimes to a more Ummah (Islamic Community) oriented government for the people.

 

The difference in the unrest in Bahrain than in other grassroots Islamic revolts is that it has more to do with the majority Shi’ite have-nots unhappy with their existence as opposed to the privileged Sunni minority haves that are well off. Since this is a Shia vs. Sunni thing in Bahrain, who do you think might possibly use the unrest as a platform to flex muscles against its Sunni competitor? Yep, that would be Iran. This is especially the case since Arab Peninsula nations are preparing to send military assistance to tiny Bahrain in the form of troops with the big dog being Saudi Arabia.

 

JRH 3/14/11

Mubarak is Leaving One Way or the Other

 

John R. Houk

© January 29, 2011

 

A crazy “throw the bums out” grassroots move has begun to spread across Muslim North Africa thanks to mob intimidation began in Tunisia. Although economics is undoubtedly the cause of regime change among despotic Muslim nations, the Muslims who wish to reform Islam to hearken back to the blood thirsty days of their Prophet Mohammed and the Prophet’s idea of converting the world to Islam are exploiting the unrest to become the leadership of the mob desiring change.

 

Egypt is succumbing big time to the Muslim mob unrest. Couple this that the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is the largest political opposition to Egyptian President Mubarak’s regime, there is a fuse lit that is searching for the bomb that will ignite the Egyptian support of the Muslim Brotherhood to depose Mubarak and rule Egypt.

 

The MB is the Sunni version of Iran’s lunatic Shia Twelvers that gave the Shah of Iran the boot to replace him with the repressive theopolitical dictatorship of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. An MB success in wresting control of political control of Egypt would mean that the Salafist style of Islam would make the rules of governance in Egypt. This means hearkening back to strict observance of Sharia Law and possible establishment of a Caliphate. Egypt is the most populous Muslim nation in Africa (Nigeria is the most populous nation in Africa and Indonesia is the most population Muslim nation). Egypt’s population would make the nation a prime candidate to enthrone a Caliph especially since the most learned Islamic University known as Al Azhar is located in Cairo Egypt. The existence of a Caliphate undoubtedly will awaken Muslim courage to invade Israel to attempt to execute another Jewish Holocaust.

 

Check this out: STRATFOR has sent out an alert that the MB and the Palestinian terrorists known as Hamas are crossing the Gaza-Egyptian border to aid in destabilizing Egypt:

 

The following is a report from a STRATFOR source in Hamas. Hamas, which formed in Gaza as an outgrowth of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), has an interest in exaggerating its role and coordination with the MB in this crisis. The following information has not been confirmed. Nonetheless, there is a great deal of concern building in Israel and the United States in particular over the role of the MB in the demonstrations and whether a political opening will be made for the Islamist organization in Egypt.

The Egyptian police are no longer patrolling the Rafah border crossing into Gaza. Hamas armed men are entering into Egypt and are closely collaborating with the MB. The MB has fully engaged itself in the demonstrations, and they are unsatisfied with the dismissal of the Cabinet. They are insisting on a new Cabinet that does not include members of the ruling National Democratic Party.

 

Security forces in plainclothes are engaged in destroying public property in order to give the impression that many protesters represent a public menace. The MB is meanwhile forming people’s committees to protect public property and also to coordinate demonstrators’ activities, including supplying them with food, beverages and first aid.

 

The MB enjoys telling the West the propaganda taqiyya that it is no longer a militant Islamist organization, but rather a disseminator of peaceful da’wa to convince Muslims to reform and hearken back to the days of Mohammed. Hamas is definitely militant and it is a terrorist organization AND Hamas is directly a subset of the MB among Arabs that call themselves Palestinians.

 

The one ironic element that might deliver Egypt from the Islamist MB is the Egyptian Army which might accomplish a coup against Mubarak which will bring in a rule of Generals rather than radical Muslim political entities. Egyptian Generals are not Islamist; rather the Generals are self-interested in maintaining a stable Egypt that excludes the Muslim Brotherhood. The unknown variable is that the rank and file Officers in the Egyptian Army is a bunch of MB sympathizers.

 

This hearkens back to the days just after WWII when a Colonel Gamal Abdel Nasser in the Egyptian Army with the aid of the Muslim Brotherhood exacted a mid-level Army coup against the British installed Egyptian Monarchy. The scary thing was the Muslim Brotherhood was highly connected to defeated Nazi regime of Adolf Hitler in the sense of European support against British suzerainty and a mutual hatred of Jews.

 

Nasser’s alliance did not stick long. Nasser eventually turned against the MB to aggrandize his political power to become a military dictator in Egypt. Nasser illegalized the MB and assassinated its early ideological leaders. This forced the MB to become a militant underground movement inside of Egypt. Over the years the MB still managed to gain Egyptian Muslim popularity and today runs candidates under other political auspices in Egypt’s legislature.

 

Although an Egyptian Army coup led by the Generals might solve the immediate concerns of the Egyptian populace and assuage fears of nations such as America and Israel, the Generals may fear another mid-level rank and file Officer coup similar to Nasser’s rise to power. The MB has infiltrated the rank and file of the Egyptian Army.

 

STRATFOR has a better elaboration of the possibilities that might arise with Mubarak receiving the boot as the dictator of Egypt.

 

JRH 1/29/11