Coronavirus – Fight the Fear


What happens when the Dems fail to remove President Trump with lies about Russia and Ukraine? You find an actual pandemic that has a far less fatality rate than past flu epidemics handled by the Obama Administration and create fear then blame President Trump. Blaming Trump who combated the pandemic with effective policies that already dwarf the effectiveness Obama Administration policies against flu deaths is ridiculous.

 

Grassfire confronts Dem fear-mongering myths with actual facts.

 

JRH 3/12/20

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Coronavirus – Fight the Fear

We explode THREE CORONAVIRUS MYTHS to help you fight the fear…

 

3 Coronavirus Myths – Breaking the fear

 

By Steve Elliott

Data as of 3/10/20

Grassfire

 

America and the world are rushing headlong into a global recession sparked, not by a deadly virus but, by FEAR of a deadly virus.

 

Since the ramifications for our nation — and for you and me individually — are quite enormous, I want to offer you some context and resources that can help you sort out the TRUTH of what’s really happening.

 

+ + Biggest FEAR PLAY I’ve ever seen

 

First off, this is without a doubt the most widespread FEAR PLAY I’ve ever seen. Visit Drudge Report today and you’ll discover TWENTY-SIX links at the top of the page about the Chinese Coronavirus — all DOOM AND GLOOM.

 

There is no context. No counterpoint. And it’s the same just about everywhere.

 

As I’m writing this, the U.S. death toll stands at 30. Global deaths have exceeded 4,000. Yes, it’s a new, deadly virus, but the actions being taken by world leaders to SHUT DOWN entire countries (Italy is now shut down) is a dangerous overreaction. Those decisions will impact your family far more than the virus — and could decide this fall’s presidential election!

 

If we allow FEAR to rule the day, we could find ourselves in a global recession that negatively affects our families in profound ways and even directly impacts our November elections.

 

So why am I more concerned with the FEAR than the VIRUS?

 

+ + Busting the Myths…

 

Because I’ve been doing some digging…

 

And it’s looking more and more like the Chinese Coronavirus will ultimately end up very similar to the 2009-10 Swine Flu Pandemic than the Apocalypse that Drudge and everyone else is pushing.

 

Before I go on, I want to say that we must take the Chinese Coronavirus seriously. There is a good possibility that hundreds of thousands of people (or more) may die as a result of this virus. And if that happens, it will have a similar impact as the 2009 Swine Flu which infected 60 million Americans and killed more than a HALF MILLION people worldwide.

 

Yet, I don’t recall ANY GLOBAL SWINE FLU PANIC in 2009 — certainly nothing even close to the “SHUT DOWN” fears we’re experiencing now.

 

Interestingly, Swine Flu at its outset was thought to possibly have a 4% mortality rate — about the same as the current chatter surrounding the Chinese Coronavirus. In retrospect, the mortality rate for the Swine Flu Pandemic turned out to be far below 1% (perhaps .1%). Still, a HALF MILLION people died. Yet the stock market didn’t go through historic convulsions because of the flu. Countries didn’t shut down. Life went on.

 

So here are three CHINESE CORONAVIRUS MYTHS I want to bust with some fact-based realities that can keep us from cultural and economic shutdown.

 

  • Myth #1 — Chinese Coronavirus’s mortality rate is OFF THE CHARTS

 

  • Myth #2 — Chinese Coronavirus is SUPER VIRAL, way worse than the flu

 

  • Myth #3 — Chinese Coronavirus is an INDISCRIMINATE KILLER

 

To bust these myths, here are four realities about the Chinese Coronavirus…

 

+ + REALITY #1 — The mortality rate is likely FAR LOWER than currently feared

 

Currently, the FEAR PUSHERS are reporting that the mortality rate from this Coronavirus is 3.4%. That’s not true. The World Health Organization says the “crude mortality ratio” (total deaths divided by total infected) is “between 3 and 4 percent.” But a mortality ratio and a mortality rate are two different things. First off, the early predictions of mortality rates for these outbreaks are almost always high and misleading because we simply do not have enough data. (See more on this here.) Once there is additional data, the mortality ratio generally drops, and thus, the mortality rate predictions drop as well.

 

So what’s the best guess for the mortality rate for the Chinese Coronavirus? Here’s what Adm. Brett Giroir at the Department of Health and Human Services said last week: “The best estimates now of the overall mortality rate for COVID-19 is somewhere between 0.1 percent and 1 percent. That’s lower than you’ve heard probably in many reports.”

 

If Giroir is correct, then we can stop all the panic. Yes, LOTS OF PEOPLE WILL DIE — just like the Swine Flu Pandemic of a decade ago. Yes, we should take precautions. But this will not be a culture-shifting event. And it shouldn’t be treated as such.

 

But is Giroir correct?

 

Most likely, yes. The strongest data set we currently have to project the Chinese Coronavirus mortality rate is coming from South Korea, where extensive testing has been done. Here’s the latest data out of South Korea:

 

  • 189,000 people tested

 

  • 7,513 tested positive for COVID-19

 

  • 52 deaths

 

Do the math. The current “crude mortality ratio” in South Korea is .69% (52 / 7,513) — about 80% lower than the 3.4% discussed commonly. This is amazingly consistent with the mortality rate in China outside of Wuhan — .7%. Even the small case study of the Diamond Princess cruise ship that was stranded at the onset of the outbreak also suggests a lower mortality rate — 705 infected, 6 deaths (.9%). So far, Germany has reported an even lower rate — 1,139 cases and just two deaths (.017%). (You can see the latest numbers for every country reporting here.)

 

The real data right now indicates a high probability of a CEILING of .7% mortality rate, at least in developed countries. I say CEILING because with awareness will come more testing and early diagnosis and better treatments and fewer deaths. Thus, I believe it is quite reasonable to project, based on what we now know, that the actual mortality rate for those who contract the Chinese Coronavirus will be less than .7%. (For comparison, the odds of a car crash being the cause of your death is roughly 1%, and since only a smallish percentage of us will contract the Chinese Coronavirus, cars are still way more likely to kill you than this coronavirus.) Yes, America’s mortality numbers from this coronavirus look bad right now, but that’s primarily because of the small sample size and that we haven’t really begun any widespread testing.

 

I want to be clear. Even a .7% mortality rate could result in a global pandemic that could kill hundreds of thousands (remember, Swine Flu killed more than a half million). It’s a major deal that needs to be taken very seriously. But it does not justify GLOBAL PANIC, shutting down entire nations, disrupting our everyday lives, causing massive job losses, forcing America and the world into global recession, and possibly swaying the outcome of our presidential election!

 

+ + Reality #2 — Chinese Coronavirus may be LESS VIRAL than seasonal flu

 

After all the fear mongering and end-of-world posts everywhere, I was surprised to discover in the WHO literature that influenza likely “spreads faster” than Chinese Coronavirus. Also, the Chinese Coronavirus is LESS LIKELY than influenza to be transmitted in the first days of symptoms or before symptoms present. Here’s how the WHO explains it:

 

Q. How are COVID-19 and influenza viruses different?

 

A. The speed of transmission is an important point of difference between the two viruses. Influenza has a shorter median incubation period (the time from infection to appearance of symptoms) and a shorter serial interval (the time between successive cases) than COVID-19 virus. The serial interval for COVID-19 virus is estimated to be 5-6 days, while for influenza virus, the serial interval is 3 days. This means that influenza can spread faster than COVID19. Further, transmission in the first 3-5 days of illness, or potentially pre-symptomatic transmission – transmission of the virus before the appearance of symptoms – is a major driver of transmission for influenza. In contrast, while we are learning that there are people who can shed COVID-19 virus 24-48 hours prior to symptom onset, at present, this does not appear to be a major driver of transmission.

 

So the Chinese Coronavirus is possibly LESS VIRAL than the seasonal flu. I’m not hearing that much from the FEAR MONGERS. One would think we’re all doomed to get the virus, and then death is a crapshoot. Not only are we not all doomed to get the virus, if you do contract COVID-19 you might not get get sick enough to know it or even go to the doctor, and you’ll very likely survive just fine.

 

Which leads us to our third important Chinese Coronavirus realty…

 

+ + Reality #3 — Chinese Coronavirus targets the elderly and especially those with existing health conditions

 

Unlike the seasonal flu or the Swine Flu Pandemic which impacted both young and old and everyone in between, we now know that the Chinese Coronavirus very much targets people over the age of 70 and especially the elderly with respiratory and other pre-existing ailments.

 

At the epicenter of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, this Coronavirus resulted in a very ominous mortality rate of nearly 15% for those 80 and over and perhaps 10% for those in their 70s. But skew the age down to people in their 50s and the morality rate plummeted to 1.3%. And the younger you are, the more resistant you are to the virus: .4% mortality rate for those in 40s, and just .2% for ages 10 to 39. From what I can see there are NO REPORTED DEATHS in China of those under 10, which is quite a stunning fact of this virus that is terribly under-reported by the FEAR MEDIA.

 

Also, the Chinese Coronavirus acts like other respiratory illnesses in that it is exacerbated by pre-existing conditions. Based on China’s data, here are the mortality rates for those who had the Chinese Coronavirus:

 

  • and cardiovascular disease: 10.5%

 

  • and diabetes: 7.3%

 

  • and high blood pressure: 6.0%

 

  • and cancer: 5.6%

 

  • and no other reported health conditions: .9%!

 

That last line is very telling. It may prove out that existing health conditions are for more of a concern with this virus than age. And here’s another important point: Unlike the seasonal flu and the Swine Flu, not only are children far less susceptible to the Chinese Coronavirus, children are not the main transmitters. Children who do get sick seem to get the Chinese Coronavirus from adults, not other children. So we don’t need to shut down the schools.

 

All this is very significant. Instead of a WIDE-SCALE SHUTDOWN OF SOCIETY that is now being forced upon us, perhaps we can target our response to safeguarding those over, say, 70, or those with existing health conditions. Let’s do aggressive testing for those over 70 or those with health conditions. Let’s learn from countries like Germany, whose excellent elderly care may explain the country’s current low mortality ratio of just .017%.

 

So we may have caught a break. Yes, seniors are in danger. But our response to the outbreak can be very targeted, and since children are less susceptible both to the disease and as transmitters, it may not prove to be as widespread as, for example, the Swine Flu (which infected 60 million Americans!).

 

The targeted nature of the virus toward the elderly is another good reason NOT to panic and NOT to disrupt our normal lives and NOT to throw our nation into lockdown and NOT to create an economic meltdown and NOT to allow fear to determine our future!

 

All this leads me to a fourth reality, and some actions we can take…

 

+ + Reality #4 — We have already OVERREACTED and now our overreaction is the main danger!

 

It’s clear that we have already overreacted. Again, as of this writing, 30 people in the U.S. have died, and our national reaction has already sent the stock market into historic convulsions. We have started down the slippery slope to cultural and economic shutdown. Events are being cancelled. Businesses are putting a moratorium on travel. People are hoarding… toilet paper! You can feel it coming. Shutdown.

 

As I’ve shown, the REALITY data does not warrant this over-reaction, nor does our current situation. Consider this: If we’re already in the beginning stages of shutdown with just a handful of deaths, WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE when the U.S. death toll reaches 100, and then 1,000? Because of our over-reaction now, we will almost be forced into societal shutdown as the death toll rises. And it will rise. Why? Because we’re dealing with a virus that likely CANNOT BE CONTROLLED and could very likely kill thousands if not tens of thousands or more Americans. This is the reality with pandemics. Thankfully, it now appears the Chinese Coronavirus is NOT the Armageddon virus the FEAR MEDIA would have us believe it is.

 

And the fear is dangerous. Here’s what Dr. Abu Sharkaway — an infectious disease expert in Toronto — posted on Facebook last week:

 

“I am not scared of Covid-19. What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world.”

 

+ + How to fight back against the fear…

 

So what do we do? How do we push back against the FEAR NARRATIVE?

 

First, we CONTINUE TO GATHER INFORMATION independent of the FEAR-BASED MEDIA SYSTEM. Grassfire is going to do our part.

 

Second, we take prudent steps to protect ourselves and our families and minimize the risks, especially for the elderly.

 

Third, we REJECT THE FEAR NARRATIVE and insist on continuing to live our lives as normally as possible. We sound off in every arena possible — in your home, on talk radio, in your community. We tell our elected representatives that we are knowledgeable, but we are not afraid and we DO NOT WANT GOVERNMENT-MANDATED OR GOVERNMENT-ENCOURAGED economic and societal shutdown.

 

+ + The ultimate danger we face

 

Even beyond economic disruption and societal shutdown and the possible ramifications on a U.S. presidential election, our FEAR RESPONSE to this virus poses an even greater danger. It’s possible that long after this Chinese Coronavirus event has come and gone, our society will have shifted further into the realm of fear and isolation.

 

We’ll stop shaking hands and instead adopt the “elbow bump” as part of our new norm of “social distancing” (a phrase just added to the lexicon for most of us)… We’ll have even more justification for interacting virtually instead of in person…. Churches will only serve communion in those individual hermetically sealed communion packets… And we’ll cement in our psyche a presupposition of social fear and isolation.

 

Dr. Sharkaway said it this way:

 

“[M]ostly, I’m scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, openmindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.”

 

So let’s get educated. Let’s have open discussions in our circles of influence. Let’s take prudent steps to protect our families. And let’s refuse to give into the fear.

 

Steve Elliott, Grassfire

 

(Return to Fight The Fear main.)

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BLOG EDITOR (In Fascistbook jail since 1/20/20): I’ve apparently been placed in restricted Facebook Jail! The restriction was relegated after criticizing Democrats for supporting abortion in one post and criticizing Virginia Dems for gun-grabbing legislation and levying protester restrictions. Rather than capitulate to Facebook censorship by abandoning the platform, I choose to post and share until the Leftist censors ban me completely. Conservatives are a huge portion of Facebook. If more or all Conservatives are banned, it will affect the Facebook advertising revenue paradigm. SO FIGHT CENSORSHIP BY SHARE – SHARE – SHARE!!! Facebook notified me in pop-up on 1/20/20: “You’re temporarily restricted from joining and posting to groups that you do not manage until April 18 at 7:04 PM.”

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Our World is being slowly Rewritten Before our Eyes


God Creating Ex Nihilo

Check This for Evidence

 

Adam D. Houk

12/17/2010 10:32 PM

 

I remember having an argument about the meaning of the word “fact” with a friend of my a few months back.  Basically I stated that a fact is something that has actually happened, not something that has been theorized and or highly accepted amongst many as the truth.  My argument was: Without an actual being to observe it there is no way to show that something is fact because we might later find out down the road there is another perfectly good explanation that fits all experiments and contradicts the current belief which also fits all the experiments.  Without being able to distinguish which is true there is no way of proving one or the other is a fact.

 

Definition of current online Webster’s Dictionary of the word “fact”:

 

1:

a. thing done: as an obsolete: feat

b. crime <accessory after the fact>

c. archaic: action

 

2. archaic: performance, doing

 

3. The quality of being actual – actuality <a question of fact hinges on evidence>

 

4.

a. Something that has actual existence <space exploration is now a fact>

b. An actual occurrence <prove the fact of damage>

 

5. A piece of information presented as having objective reality — in fact, in truth

 

My 1996 copy written Webster’s Dictionary of the word fact:

 

1. A deed, esp. a criminal deed [an accessory before (or after) the fact]

 

2. A thing that has actually happened or is really true

 

3. Reality; truth

 

4. Something stated to be true – as a matter of fact in reality; also in fact

 

Notice how the 3rd definition was added in the newer version.  By my 1996 version my statement is absolutely true.  In the newest version this thing where people want things to be called “facts” which is best on quality of being actual instead of what is really actual is a matter of redefining our language to fit an agenda that is bent on removing God from this world.  Yes when I had this argument it was because the Big Bang theory has been talked about as a fact when it is not a fact just by the mere impossibility a being actually being there to observe it, a fact is something that you can’t refute.  I can, God created the universe.

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Adam is a Physics Graduate Student at Texas Tech University.